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Mathematical models of Ebola-Consequences of underlying assumptions
澳门新葡8455最新网站:2018年07月26日 11:53 点击数:

报告人:冯芷兰

报告地点:综合教学楼102室

报告澳门新葡8455最新网站:2018年07月27日星期五08:30-09:30

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报告摘要:

Mathematical models have been used to study Ebola disease transmission dynamics and control for the recent epidemics in West Africa. Many of the models used in these studies are based on the model of Legrand et al. [1], and most failed to accurately project the outbreak’s course. Although there could be many reasons for this, including incomplete and unreliable data on Ebola epidemiology and lack of empirical data on how disease-control measures quantitatively affect Ebola transmission, we examine the underlying assumptions of the Legrand model, and provide alternate formulations that are simpler and provide additional information regarding the epidemiology of Ebola during an outbreak. We developed three models with different assumptions about disease stage durations, one of which simplifies to the Legrand model while the others have more realistic distributions [2].Numerical demonstrate the differences in model evaluations of control strategies. Control and basic reproduction numbers for all three models are derived for arbitrary distributions of disease stages.

 

 

主讲人概况:

冯芷兰,美国Purdue University教授。1978-1985年就读于吉林大学数学系,先后获学士和硕士学位。1994年于美国Arizona State University获博士学位, 1994-1996年在美国Cornell University从事博士后研究。1996年至今在美国Purdue University任教,2005年任教授。冯芷兰教授是数学生物学领域知名学者,主要从事微分方程和动力学系统及其在生物学、生态学、流行病学中的应用,公开发表论文80余篇,是Journal of Theoretical Biology, Mathematical Biosciences, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 以及 SIAM J. Applications Mathematics等杂志的编委。

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