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A Stochastic Differential Equation SIS Epidemic Model
澳门新葡8455最新网站:2011年06月24日 00:00 点击数:

报告人:Mao Xuerong

报告地点:澳门新葡8455最新网站615室

报告澳门新葡8455最新网站:2011年06月30日(星期四)9:00—10:00

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报告摘要:

In this paper we extend the classical SIS epidemic model from a deterministic framework to a stochastic one, and formulate it as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the number of infectious individuals I(t). We then prove that this SDE has a unique global positive solution I(t) and establish conditions for extinction and persistence of I(t). We discuss the effects of the level of the stochastic noise. In the case of persistence we show the existence of a stationary distribution and derive expressions for its mean and variance. The results are illustrated by computer simulations, including two examples based on real life diseases.

主讲人概况:

Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh.Head of Dept of Mathematics and Statistics University of Strathclyde, UK.

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