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The SIS Epidemic Model with Markovian Switching
澳门新葡8455最新网站:2014年07月17日 00:00 点击数:

报告人:毛学荣

报告地点:澳门新葡8455最新网站615室

报告澳门新葡8455最新网站:2014年07月24日星期四10:00-11:00

邀请人:

报告摘要:

Population systems are often subject to environmental noise. Motivated by Takeuchi et al., we will discuss in this talk the effect of telegraph noise on the well-known SIS epidemic model. We establish the explicit solution of the stochastic SIS epidemic model, which is useful in performing computer simulations. We also establish the conditions for extinction and persistence for the stochastic SIS epidemic model and compare these with the corresponding conditions for the deterministic SIS epidemic model. We first prove these results for a two-state Markov chain and then generalise them to a finite state space Markov chain. Computer simulations based on the explicit solution and the Euler--Maruyama scheme are performed to illustrate our theory. We include a more realistic example using appropriate parameter values for the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae in children.

主讲人概况:

毛学荣教授现任英国斯特拉斯克莱德(Strathclyde)大学数学与统计系教授和系主任,爱丁堡皇家学会(即苏格兰的国家科新葡京最新官网)院士。毛学荣教授是国际知名的随机稳定性和随机控制领域的专家。

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